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Tuesday, October 15 • 10:30am - 10:45am
Forecast the Future of US Oil and Gas Supply

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We use Monte Carlo simulation to capture the details of the oil and gas production process in order to forecast the US oil and gas supply. This differs from a pure machine learning model where the process is treated as a black box, and the underlying mechanism is not known. The model utilizes rig count and historical well production data to forecast oil and gas production within the United States. The model first computes the number of first production wells from the rig count by analyzing the drilling process. Then, it forecasts the future production of each well by fitting Arps’ equation. The model forecasts production at the basin level for both tight and conventional wells for a given scenario. A scenario is a set of parameters including future rig count, drill time, completion time, idle time, backlog probability, and initial production.


Jiangchuan Huang

Presenter, ConocoPhillips

Darryl Buswell


James Pearson


Tuesday October 15, 2019 10:30am - 10:45am CDT
BRC 103

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